/games/2026-11-08/fla-at-bos
FLAAway · Akira Schmid (projected) · xG 3.03
48.1%BOSHome · Jeremy Swayman (projected) · xG 3.12
51.9%FLA reg 37.8%FLA OT/SO 10.3%BOS OT/SO 11.2%BOS reg 40.7%
The quick read
What the numbers sayToo close to call
FLA and BOS each win about half of our 20,000 simulated games.
- BOS goalie Jeremy Swayman has been stopping more shots than expected this season.
- BOS should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 16% more scoring chances.
- FLA has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
- About 6.2 goals projected, right around a typical NHL game.
- Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.
Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.
Fair odds
1 / probability · no marginMoneyline (incl. OT/SO)
FLA48.1%
2.079BOS51.9%
1.92760-minute result
FLA37.8%
2.646Tie21.5%
4.651BOS40.7%
2.457Puck line
FLA +1.573.0%
1.370BOS −1.527.0%
3.704Total 6.5
Over 6.548.5%
2.062Under 6.551.5%
1.942If they played 100 times
Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.
38 FLA reg10 FLA OT/SO11 BOS OT/SO41 BOS reg
Regulation score grid
Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.
BOS ↓
FLA →0123456
FLA →0123456
0
0.2
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
1
0.5
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.8
1.3
0.6
2
0.8
2.8
6.4
4.3
3.3
2.8
0.9
3
1.4
2.7
4.4
6.7
3.5
2.1
1.4
4
0.8
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.0
1.8
0.8
5
0.4
1.3
2.9
2.2
1.7
1.4
0.5
6
0.2
0.6
1.1
1.6
1.1
0.5
0.4
Most likely3–3 · 6.7%2–2 · 6.4%BOS 3–2 · 4.4%FLA 3–2 · 4.3%
Total goals
Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.
58.2%over 5.5 (fair 1.718) · under 41.8% (fair 2.392)
1.3
1.5
10.2
6.9
21.9
9.8
21.1
7.0
11.2
3.1
6.0
1234567891011+
Winning margin & puck line
Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.
2.2
3.6
8.7
9.9
23.7
24.9
10.6
9.7
3.9
2.7
5+432112345+
← FLA wins byBOS wins by →
Why it’s close
Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.
5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
FLA
2.39
BOS
2.77
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
FLA
9.10
BOS
7.49
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
FLA
4.73
BOS
4.29
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
FLA
0.00
BOS
+0.17
Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.
How the model works →How accurate is it? →