/games/2026-11-08/njd-at-tor
NHL · Sun, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM ET · 20,000 sims
NJDAway · Jake Allen (projected) · xG 3.48
57.9%
TORHome · Sergei Bobrovsky (projected) · xG 3.03
42.1%
NJD reg 47.1%NJD OT/SO 10.8%TOR OT/SO 9.8%TOR reg 32.3%
Updated Nov 8, 3:32 AM ET

The quick read

What the numbers say

NJD has the edge

NJD wins about 6 in 10 of our 20,000 simulated games against TOR.

  • NJD should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 17% more scoring chances.
  • NJD goalie Jake Allen has been letting in more goals than expected this season.
  • NJD tends to draw more penalties, so expect more power plays for them.
  • Expect goals: about 6.5 projected, with 6 or more goals in 6 of 10 simulations.
  • Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.

Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.

Fair odds

1 / probability · no margin
Moneyline (incl. OT/SO)
NJD57.9%
1.727
TOR42.1%
2.375
60-minute result
NJD47.1%
2.123
Tie20.6%
4.854
TOR32.3%
3.096
Puck line
NJD +1.579.7%
1.255
TOR −1.520.3%
4.926
Total 6.5
Over 6.554.0%
1.852
Under 6.546.0%
2.174

If they played 100 times

Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.

47 NJD reg11 NJD OT/SO10 TOR OT/SO32 TOR reg

Regulation score grid

Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.

TOR ↓
NJD →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3
1
0.3
1.9
2.4
2.7
3.4
1.8
0.9
2
0.4
2.0
5.2
4.4
3.8
3.7
1.6
3
0.8
1.8
3.6
6.3
4.2
2.9
2.2
4
0.5
2.4
2.9
3.6
4.5
2.2
1.2
5
0.2
1.0
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.8
0.7
6
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.6
Most likely3–3 · 6.3%2–2 · 5.2%4–4 · 4.5%NJD 3–2 · 4.4%

Total goals

Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.

63.9%over 5.5 (fair 1.565) · under 36.1% (fair 2.770)
1234567891011+

Winning margin & puck line

Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.

5+432112345+
← NJD wins byTOR wins by →

Why the model leans NJD

Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.

5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
NJD
2.98
TOR
2.54
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
NJD
9.46
TOR
10.13
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
NJD
3.83
TOR
3.00
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
NJD
-0.13
TOR
-0.01

Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.

How the model works →How accurate is it? →