/games/2026-11-08/phi-at-cgy
NHL · Sun, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM ET · 20,000 sims
PHIAway · Dan Vladar (projected) · xG 3.10
46.4%
CGYHome · Dustin Wolf (projected) · xG 3.29
53.6%
PHI reg 36.3%PHI OT/SO 10.1%CGY OT/SO 11.0%CGY reg 42.6%
Updated Nov 8, 3:32 AM ET

The quick read

What the numbers say

Slight edge to CGY

CGY wins 54% of our 20,000 simulated games against PHI, a little more than half.

  • CGY goalie Dustin Wolf has been letting in more goals than expected this season.
  • CGY should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 14% more scoring chances.
  • PHI has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
  • About 6.4 goals projected, right around a typical NHL game.
  • Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.

Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.

Fair odds

1 / probability · no margin
Moneyline (incl. OT/SO)
PHI46.4%
2.155
CGY53.6%
1.866
60-minute result
PHI36.3%
2.755
Tie21.1%
4.739
CGY42.6%
2.347
Puck line
PHI +1.571.5%
1.399
CGY −1.528.5%
3.509
Total 6.5
Over 6.552.3%
1.912
Under 6.547.7%
2.096

If they played 100 times

Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.

36 PHI reg10 PHI OT/SO11 CGY OT/SO43 CGY reg

Regulation score grid

Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.

CGY ↓
PHI →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.2
1
0.4
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.2
0.4
2
0.6
2.6
5.5
4.0
3.1
2.6
0.9
3
1.1
2.5
4.6
7.0
3.6
2.2
1.5
4
0.7
3.2
3.4
3.7
4.2
1.7
1.1
5
0.4
1.5
3.4
2.6
1.9
1.7
0.7
6
0.2
0.7
1.3
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.4
Most likely3–3 · 7.0%2–2 · 5.5%CGY 3–2 · 4.6%4–4 · 4.2%

Total goals

Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.

61.8%over 5.5 (fair 1.618) · under 38.2% (fair 2.618)
1234567891011+

Winning margin & puck line

Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.

5+432112345+
← PHI wins byCGY wins by →

Why it’s close

Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.

5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
PHI
2.65
CGY
3.03
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
PHI
8.52
CGY
7.41
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
PHI
3.75
CGY
3.64
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
PHI
-0.01
CGY
-0.17

Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.

How the model works →How accurate is it? →