/games/2026-11-08/pit-at-ana
NHL · Sun, Nov 8 · 8:00 PM ET · 20,000 sims
PITAway · Arturs Silovs (projected) · xG 3.40
50.7%
ANAHome · Lukas Dostal (projected) · xG 3.35
49.3%
PIT reg 40.1%PIT OT/SO 10.6%ANA OT/SO 10.9%ANA reg 38.4%
Updated Nov 8, 3:32 AM ET

The quick read

What the numbers say

Too close to call

PIT and ANA each win about half of our 20,000 simulated games.

  • ANA has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
  • PIT should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 7% more scoring chances.
  • PIT tends to draw more penalties, so expect more power plays for them.
  • Expect goals: about 6.8 projected, with 6 or more goals in 7 of 10 simulations.
  • Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.

Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.

Fair odds

1 / probability · no margin
Moneyline (incl. OT/SO)
PIT50.7%
1.972
ANA49.3%
2.028
60-minute result
PIT40.1%
2.494
Tie21.5%
4.651
ANA38.4%
2.604
Puck line
PIT +1.574.7%
1.339
ANA −1.525.3%
3.953
Total 6.5
Over 6.558.2%
1.718
Under 6.541.8%
2.392

If they played 100 times

Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.

40 PIT reg11 PIT OT/SO11 ANA OT/SO38 ANA reg

Regulation score grid

Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.

ANA ↓
PIT →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.2
1
0.3
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.5
1.3
0.6
2
0.5
2.1
5.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
1.2
3
1.0
2.1
3.7
6.7
3.8
2.4
1.9
4
0.5
2.4
3.0
3.8
4.8
2.2
1.3
5
0.2
1.2
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
0.8
6
0.2
0.6
1.1
1.9
1.2
0.8
0.8
Most likely3–3 · 6.7%2–2 · 5.0%4–4 · 4.8%ANA 4–3 · 3.8%

Total goals

Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.

67.4%over 5.5 (fair 1.484) · under 32.6% (fair 3.067)
1234567891011+

Winning margin & puck line

Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.

5+432112345+
← PIT wins byANA wins by →

Why it’s close

Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.

5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
PIT
3.11
ANA
2.91
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
PIT
7.18
ANA
9.29
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
PIT
4.03
ANA
3.65
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
PIT
-0.03
ANA
-0.04

Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.

How the model works →How accurate is it? →