/games/2026-11-08/tbl-at-wpg
TBLAway · Andrei Vasilevskiy (projected) · xG 3.51
57.7%WPGHome · Stuart Skinner (projected) · xG 3.06
42.3%TBL reg 46.9%TBL OT/SO 10.8%WPG OT/SO 10.2%WPG reg 32.1%
The quick read
What the numbers sayTBL has the edge
TBL wins about 6 in 10 of our 20,000 simulated games against WPG.
- TBL should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 13% more scoring chances.
- TBL has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
- TBL tends to draw more penalties, so expect more power plays for them.
- Expect goals: about 6.6 projected, with 6 or more goals in 6 of 10 simulations.
- Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.
Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.
Fair odds
1 / probability · no marginMoneyline (incl. OT/SO)
TBL57.7%
1.733WPG42.3%
2.36460-minute result
TBL46.9%
2.132Tie21.0%
4.762WPG32.1%
3.115Puck line
TBL +1.579.7%
1.255WPG −1.520.3%
4.926Total 6.5
Over 6.555.5%
1.802Under 6.544.5%
2.247If they played 100 times
Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.
47 TBL reg11 TBL OT/SO10 WPG OT/SO32 WPG reg
Regulation score grid
Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.
WPG ↓
TBL →0123456
TBL →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.3
1
0.3
1.8
2.3
2.6
3.3
1.8
0.9
2
0.5
2.0
5.2
4.3
3.7
3.8
1.5
3
0.7
1.9
3.6
6.5
4.3
2.5
2.2
4
0.5
2.1
2.6
3.3
4.6
2.4
1.3
5
0.2
0.9
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.9
0.8
6
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.3
0.9
0.7
0.6
Most likely3–3 · 6.5%2–2 · 5.2%4–4 · 4.6%TBL 4–3 · 4.3%
Total goals
Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.
64.8%over 5.5 (fair 1.543) · under 35.2% (fair 2.841)
0.9
1.2
8.1
5.9
19.2
9.3
21.9
7.6
13.5
3.7
8.7
1234567891011+
Winning margin & puck line
Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.
4.1
5.2
11.6
11.3
25.5
22.0
8.5
7.3
2.8
1.7
5+432112345+
← TBL wins byWPG wins by →
Why the model leans TBL
Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.
5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
TBL
2.95
WPG
2.60
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
TBL
10.43
WPG
8.86
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
TBL
3.86
WPG
3.46
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
TBL
-0.02
WPG
+0.02
Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.
How the model works →How accurate is it? →