/games/2026-11-08/vgk-at-buf
NHL · Sun, Nov 8 · 3:30 PM ET · 20,000 sims
VGKAway · Carter Hart (projected) · xG 3.29
54.3%
BUFHome · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (projected) · xG 3.03
45.7%
VGK reg 43.5%VGK OT/SO 10.8%BUF OT/SO 10.9%BUF reg 34.8%
Updated Nov 8, 3:32 AM ET

The quick read

What the numbers say

Slight edge to VGK

VGK wins 54% of our 20,000 simulated games against BUF, a little more than half.

  • VGK has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
  • At full strength these two look evenly matched.
  • About 6.3 goals projected, right around a typical NHL game.
  • Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.

Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.

Fair odds

1 / probability · no margin
Moneyline (incl. OT/SO)
VGK54.3%
1.842
BUF45.7%
2.188
60-minute result
VGK43.5%
2.299
Tie21.8%
4.587
BUF34.8%
2.874
Puck line
VGK +1.578.1%
1.280
BUF −1.521.9%
4.566
Total 6.5
Over 6.551.5%
1.942
Under 6.548.5%
2.062

If they played 100 times

Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.

43 VGK reg11 VGK OT/SO11 BUF OT/SO35 BUF reg

Regulation score grid

Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.

BUF ↓
VGK →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.2
1
0.5
2.1
2.7
2.7
3.2
1.5
0.8
2
0.6
2.4
6.0
4.7
3.5
3.4
1.2
3
1.0
2.3
4.0
6.8
3.7
2.5
1.9
4
0.6
2.5
2.9
3.5
4.3
2.0
1.0
5
0.3
1.1
2.5
2.1
1.8
1.8
0.7
6
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.4
0.8
0.5
0.4
Most likely3–3 · 6.8%2–2 · 6.0%VGK 3–2 · 4.7%4–4 · 4.3%

Total goals

Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.

60.7%over 5.5 (fair 1.647) · under 39.3% (fair 2.545)
1234567891011+

Winning margin & puck line

Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.

5+432112345+
← VGK wins byBUF wins by →

Why it’s close

Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.

5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
VGK
2.81
BUF
2.68
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
VGK
9.56
BUF
7.83
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
VGK
3.65
BUF
3.41
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
VGK
+0.04
BUF
-0.03

Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.

How the model works →How accurate is it? →