/games/2026-11-09/flyers-vs-canucks
Philadelphia Flyers vs Vancouver Canucks prediction & odds
PHIAway · Dan Vladar (projected) · xG 3.32
53.4%VANHome · Leevi Merilinen (projected) · xG 3.09
46.6%PHI reg 43.0%PHI OT/SO 10.4%VAN OT/SO 10.8%VAN reg 35.8%
The quick read
What the numbers saySlight edge to PHI
PHI wins 53% of our 20,000 simulated games against VAN, a little more than half.
- PHI has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
- At full strength these two look evenly matched.
- Expect goals: about 6.4 projected, with 6 or more goals in 6 of 10 simulations.
- Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.
Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.
Fair odds
1 / probability · no marginMoneyline (incl. OT/SO)
PHI53.4%
1.873VAN46.6%
2.14660-minute result
PHI43.0%
2.326Tie21.2%
4.717VAN35.8%
2.793Puck line
PHI +1.577.1%
1.297VAN −1.522.9%
4.367Total 6.5
Over 6.552.6%
1.901Under 6.547.4%
2.110If they played 100 times
Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.
43 PHI reg10 PHI OT/SO11 VAN OT/SO36 VAN reg
Regulation score grid
Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.
VAN ↓
PHI →0123456
PHI →0123456
0
0.1
0.5
0.8
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.2
1
0.4
2.2
2.4
2.5
3.2
1.6
0.9
2
0.6
2.4
5.3
4.4
3.6
3.3
1.2
3
1.0
2.1
3.8
6.9
3.8
2.6
1.8
4
0.5
2.4
3.3
3.7
4.0
2.1
1.0
5
0.3
1.1
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.8
0.7
6
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.6
Most likely3–3 · 6.9%2–2 · 5.3%PHI 3–2 · 4.4%4–4 · 4.0%
Total goals
Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.
62.7%over 5.5 (fair 1.595) · under 37.3% (fair 2.681)
0.9
1.3
9.3
5.9
19.9
10.1
21.9
7.3
12.2
3.6
7.6
1234567891011+
Winning margin & puck line
Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.
3.3
4.5
10.2
10.9
24.5
23.7
9.4
8.3
3.1
2.1
5+432112345+
← PHI wins byVAN wins by →
Why it’s close
Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.
5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
PHI
2.75
VAN
2.77
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
PHI
10.33
VAN
7.28
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
PHI
3.71
VAN
3.77
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
PHI
-0.02
VAN
-0.07
Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.
How the model works →How accurate is it? →