Sims update daily around 8:07 AM ETLast change Nov 9, 9:17 AM ET
/games/2026-11-09/islanders-vs-sharks

New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks prediction & odds

NHL · Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM ET · 20,000 sims
NYIAway · Ilya Sorokin (projected) · xG 3.37
54.9%
SJSHome · Yaroslav Askarov (projected) · xG 3.10
45.1%
NYI reg 43.6%NYI OT/SO 11.3%SJS OT/SO 10.4%SJS reg 34.7%
Updated Nov 9, 9:17 AM ET

The quick read

What the numbers say

Slight edge to NYI

NYI wins 55% of our 20,000 simulated games against SJS, a little more than half.

  • NYI should control more of the play at full strength, creating about 10% more scoring chances.
  • NYI has the more dangerous power play against this opponent.
  • Expect goals: about 6.5 projected, with 6 or more goals in 6 of 10 simulations.
  • Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.

Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.

Fair odds

1 / probability · no margin
Moneyline (incl. OT/SO)
NYI54.9%
1.821
SJS45.1%
2.217
60-minute result
NYI43.6%
2.294
Tie21.7%
4.608
SJS34.7%
2.882
Puck line
NYI +1.578.0%
1.282
SJS −1.522.0%
4.545
Total 6.5
Over 6.554.2%
1.845
Under 6.545.8%
2.183

If they played 100 times

Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.

44 NYI reg11 NYI OT/SO10 SJS OT/SO35 SJS reg

Regulation score grid

Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.

SJS ↓
NYI →0123456
0
0.2
0.4
0.7
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.2
1
0.5
1.8
2.5
2.5
3.1
1.5
0.9
2
0.5
2.2
5.5
4.5
3.3
3.2
1.4
3
0.9
1.9
4.0
7.0
4.1
2.7
1.9
4
0.5
2.4
2.8
3.3
4.6
2.1
1.1
5
0.3
1.0
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
0.6
6
0.1
0.4
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.5
Most likely3–3 · 7.0%2–2 · 5.5%4–4 · 4.6%NYI 3–2 · 4.5%

Total goals

Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.

63.2%over 5.5 (fair 1.582) · under 36.8% (fair 2.717)
1234567891011+

Winning margin & puck line

Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.

5+432112345+
← NYI wins bySJS wins by →

Why it’s close

Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.

5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
NYI
2.97
SJS
2.70
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
NYI
8.87
SJS
7.81
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
NYI
3.97
SJS
4.29
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
NYI
+0.13
SJS
+0.07

Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.

How the model works →How accurate is it? →