/games/2026-11-09/rangers-vs-oilers
New York Rangers vs Edmonton Oilers prediction & odds
NYRAway · Dylan Garand (projected) · xG 3.09
50.3%EDMHome · Tristan Jarry (projected) · xG 3.08
49.7%NYR reg 39.3%NYR OT/SO 11.0%EDM OT/SO 10.6%EDM reg 39.1%
The quick read
What the numbers sayToo close to call
NYR and EDM each win about half of our 20,000 simulated games.
- NYR goalie Dylan Garand has been stopping more shots than expected this season.
- At full strength these two look evenly matched.
- About 6.2 goals projected, right around a typical NHL game.
- Overtime is a real possibility: about 1 in 5 simulations are still tied after 60 minutes.
Starting goalies aren’t confirmed yet. This preview updates when they are.
Fair odds
1 / probability · no marginMoneyline (incl. OT/SO)
NYR50.3%
1.988EDM49.7%
2.01260-minute result
NYR39.3%
2.545Tie21.6%
4.630EDM39.1%
2.558Puck line
NYR +1.574.5%
1.342EDM −1.525.5%
3.922Total 6.5
Over 6.548.6%
2.058Under 6.551.4%
1.946If they played 100 times
Each dot is 200 of the 20,000 simulated games.
39 NYR reg11 NYR OT/SO11 EDM OT/SO39 EDM reg
Regulation score grid
Chance of each exact score after 60 minutes. Outlined cells are ties.
EDM ↓
NYR →0123456
NYR →0123456
0
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.2
1
0.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.1
1.4
0.6
2
0.8
2.7
5.9
4.5
3.4
2.9
0.9
3
1.2
2.8
4.4
6.8
3.6
2.2
1.7
4
0.7
3.1
3.3
3.5
4.3
1.6
0.9
5
0.4
1.3
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.5
0.6
6
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.5
0.9
0.5
0.4
Most likely3–3 · 6.8%2–2 · 5.9%NYR 3–2 · 4.5%EDM 3–2 · 4.4%
Total goals
Final score, with the OT/SO winner counted as +1.
58.4%over 5.5 (fair 1.712) · under 41.6% (fair 2.404)
1.2
1.5
10.2
6.9
21.9
9.8
21.0
6.7
11.6
3.0
6.2
1234567891011+
Winning margin & puck line
Bright bars are wins by 2+ (covers −1.5). Empty-net goals widen late margins.
2.5
3.6
9.4
10.3
24.5
24.1
10.1
9.4
3.6
2.5
5+432112345+
← NYR wins byEDM wins by →
Why it’s close
Projected per-60 rates for this matchup: offense vs the other team's defense, adjusted for home ice and the starting goalie.
5v5 scoringprojected goals / 60
NYR
2.60
EDM
2.57
Power playgoals / 60 on the PP
NYR
9.24
EDM
8.46
Penalties drawnopponent minors / 60
NYR
3.58
EDM
3.88
Goalie GSAxregressed, per 60
NYR
+0.06
EDM
-0.04
Simulated in 10-second steps with power plays, score effects, pulled goalies, 3v3 overtime and shootouts. Team rates are regressed toward league average; goalie GSAx is regressed harder.
How the model works →How accurate is it? →